Karolygate IV

IN MAY of this year, when things were going swimmingly for David Karoly and Joelle Gergis and their co-authored claim that Australia is hotter now than at any time since Ethelred the Unready was King of England, The Age’s resident green megaphone Adam Morton waxed rhapsodic about the coming climate catastrophe and the weight of evidence that settled the science behind this assertion once and for all. The headline on his article was a half-witty invocation of the alleged scientific method, which in this instance involved the charting of tree growth (and other “proxies”) to establish when the thermometer rose and fell. “Climate research has ring of truth” the title insisted, followed by some 1,300 words of unquestioning and largely unqualified enthusiasm:

Co-author and University of Melbourne climate science professor David Karoly says the study for the first time establishes that claims there was a substantial mediaeval warm period hotter than today had no basis in Australasia. The study uses climate proxies - surrogates for the record of observed temperatures that date back to only the early 20th century.

Initially, the data from tree rings and other sites was tested for its ability to reconstruct temperatures between 1921 and 1990. The palaeoclimate records from 50 sites were compared to the actual temperature record for these years. The palaeoclimatic data that did not display a statistically significant temperature signal, but was found to have been more strongly influenced by other climate factors such as rainfall, was excluded. But the data from the 27 sites that remained collectively matched the actual temperature increase with a high correlation coefficient of 0.83, and were considered suitable for use as a proxy for the real thing to reconstruct temperatures over previous centuries.

The results matched what was known about certain historical periods. It was found early European settlers would have suffered through the coldest period of the past millennium in the 1830s and 1840s - the peak of what is known as the global little ice age. In pre-industrial times, the warmest lengthy stretch was found to be between 1238 and 1267, which the study estimates was 0.09 degrees cooler than the mid-to-late 20th century average.

But the warmest decades were found to be the last three examined: the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Instrumental temperature records show the first decade of the 21st century was hotter again....

Now let us leap three weeks forward from the date of that Age article’s publication. It is early June and Karoly and his confederates have just been made aware that their research methods are fatally flawed, data useless and the bally-hooed study likely to become an object of immense ridicule.

How to react? According to those astonishing emails just released in response to an FOI request, Karoly knew just what to do: First, add this additional paragraph to the earlier press release spruiking Karoly and Gergis’ alleged achievement.

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, which may affect the results. While the paper states that "both proxy climate and instrumental data were linearly detrended over the 1921-1990 period”: we discovered on Tuesday 5 June that the records used in the final analysis were not detrended for proxy selection, making this statement incorrect. Although this is an unfortunate data processing issue, it is likely to have implications for the results reported in the study. The journal has been contacted and the publication of the study has been put on hold.

That done, it was time to deal with the press, as Karoly explains in an email sent on June 11: 

There have been emails from Andy Revkin of teh (sic) New York Times and Adam Morton at the Age. Adam will have a short article in the Age tomorrow, to update his piece that covered the original paper at length 3 weeks ago.

Karoly & Co weren’t having much luck chronicling past temperatures, but the climate guru’s prediction of what Morton would be writing verged on the clairvoyant. It was indeed a “short article”. A very short article, reproduced below in its entirety.

A WIDELY reported study that found the past half-century in Australasia was very likely the warmest in a millennium has been ''put on hold'' after a mistake was found in the paper.

Led by scientists from the University of Melbourne, the study involved analysis of palaeoclimatic data from tree rings, coral and ice cores to give what was described as the most complete climate record of the region over the past 1000 years.

It was peer-reviewed and published online by the Journal of Climate in May, but was removed from the website last week at the authors' request after the discovery of a ''data processing issue'' that could affect the results.

Study co-author and climate science professor David Karoly said one of the five authors found the method of analysis outlined in the paper differed to that actually used.

The Climate Audit blog - run by Canadian Steve McIntyre, who has challenged the validity of palaeoclimatic temperature reconstructions - claimed credit for finding the issue with the paper. Professor Karoly said the authors uncovered the problem before Climate Audit blogged about it.

He said the data and results were being reviewed.

''This is a normal part of science,'' he said.

''The testing of scientific studies through independent analysis of data and methods strengthens the conclusions. In this study, an issue has been identified and the results are being rechecked.''

Morton’s “short article” went to press on June 12, and please do note that date. Why? Well according to the Karolygate emails, the collapse of the paper’s credibility by that stage had moved well beyond it being put merely “on hold”.

On June 9 – well before before Morton was fed that line about it being “on hold”, John Chiang of Climate Journal, which had accepted the, ahem, peer-reviewed paper and published an advance copy on its website, wrote a private note to Gergis (emphasis added at the Billabong):

From: John Chiang [jch_chiang@berkele~eduf
Sent: Saturday, 9 June 2012 9:04AM
To: Joelle Gergis
Cc: John Chiang
Subject: Fwd: Error in our JCU - D- 11-00649 submission

Dear Joelle: After consulting with the Chief Editor, I have decided to rescind acceptance of the paper- you'll receive an official email from J Climate to this effect as soon as we figure out how it should be properly done. I believe the EOR has already been taken down.

Also, since it appears that you will have to redo the entire analysis (and which may result in different conclusions), I will also be requesting that you withdraw the paper from consideration. Again, you'll hear officially from J Climate in due course. I invite you to resubmit once the necessary analyses and changes to the manuscript have been made.

I hope this will be acceptable to you. I regret the situation, but thank you for bringing it to my prompt attention.

Best regards,
John

So, just to recap:

On June 9 the Gergis paper’s acceptance was rescinded, it was removed from the publication’s website and its authors instructed to go back to the drawingboard and try harder this time.

On June 11, Karoly intimates that Morton will do no more than touch on the paper’s troubles and that his report will be a nothing-to-worry-about “short” report that the paper is merely on “on hold” when the fact of the matter is that Journal of Climate’s editors had already decided it was dead, discredited and fit only to be discarded.

One June 12, Morton fulfils Karoly’s prophecy by dutifully transcribing the stenographic notes of his exchange, misleading as it was.

How climate scientists conduct their affairs has received a lot of attention since late in 2009, when the original Climategate emails surfaced, but the role of their enablers in the press has gone largely unexamined by the press itself. It is a topic that screams to be explored, and a splendid local starting point for that inquiry might be the editor’s office at the Age, where this question or something like it needs to be put to the newspaper’s environment editor:

“Adam, sorry to bother you, but do you think you might be too close, and far too sympathetic, to your fellow believers in global warming? And while we are on the subject, why didn’t you contact Climate Journal to make sure you weren’t being spun silly by your mate Karoly?”

The answers might be very interesting, even allowing for lots of stammering.

A NOTE: All the Melbourne University emails can be found here. The specific emails quoted above are all reproduced in this file.

Hot Deals On Unicorn Poo

THE childlike Adam Morton, eyes wide with innocent wonder, today reports that Victoria could draw all its energy needs from the sun. Mankind may or may not be changing the climate, but one thing will remain immutable until the end of days: When slick charlatans meet gullible dills, count on bridges being sold and bought.  

Washed Out

THE tucker box is full, several chickens and a leg of lamb are frozen solid and packed in the Esky, sleeping bags are clean, the gas bottle full and the Bunyipmobile sits in the driveway with rod holder strapped to the pack rack. And unfortunately that is where it is going to stay. Once again, this global warming business is playing havoc with a weary angler’s ambitions to get away from it all, this season’s tally standing at two trips cancelled before they could begin and one aborted after a soggy, leech-plagued sojourn in a forest wetter even than Malcolm Turnbull.

It is very annoying, and someone should be made to pay for raising so many false expectations. As the Flanneries pelt down and all thought of getting away evaporates, this prediction in particular gets a Bunyip’s goat:

Victoria is likely to come under the influence of another El Nino within the next three years, exacerbating the drought and the likelihood of bushfires, a senior Bureau of Meteorology climate scientist says. David Jones, the head of the bureau's National Climate Centre, said there was some risk of a worsening El Nino event this year, but it was more likely to arrive in 2010 or 2011. – Adam Morton of The Age reports the settled science in February, 2009

If there is any satisfaction to be drawn from this moment of contemplating frustrated travel plans it is this: when the next drought comes, the Age will no longer be around to witness it.  

Morton's Reliably Unreliable Source

IT'S official.

Tim Flannery is given to "overreach and self-contradiction", according to Phage eco-warrior-in-chief Adam Morton's review of the climate commissioner's new book, which details Bone Man's hairy-chested adventures on sundry Pacific isles.

Mind you, Morton's faith in Flannery remains undiminished:

At the heart of the book is the celebration and demystification of the act of science - the laying of nets and traps, animal wrangling, collection of samples and slow building on the sum of human understanding. In an age when respect for science is diminishing, it is a reminder that knowledge is hard-earned.

That "science" and "understanding"? The cause of "demystification" might be advanced if green publicists masquerading as journalists were a little more sceptical of those given to "overreach and self-contradiction".

Follow The Real Money, Mr Cubby

IT’S FUNNY the things that get Fairfax journalists in a tizz. Forget the past three Question Times, each a ding-dong exercise in red-blooded democracy and not bad theatre, either. A Prime Minister who won’t answer questions, a sleazebag Speaker bestowing favourable rulings on his government patrons, the PM-in-exile who can barely suppress his smile while upstaging his replacement at the Dispatch Box – that has been spectators’ delightful daily fare. Even as we pay our political class for the pleasure of watching it confect the means to relieve us of cash and liberty, this week in Canberra must be acknowledged for its sweet compensation of superb entertainment.

Well that is one Bunyip’s opinion, but not that of the Phage’s chief eco-warrior Adam Morton, who is greatly saddened by the hubbub in the House.

One is inclined to urge poor Morton to look away, lest the spectacle of so many scandals worth investigating brings on a nervous collapse. Already anxious at the prospect of climate change's encouragement of bushfires, floods, cold weather and hearing-impaired clownfish, the very idea that the architects of the carbon tax might soon be out of office could push the poor boy right over the edge.

Fortunately, Silly colleague Ben Cubby is made of sterner stuff, keeping his advocate's eye on both the ball and all the latest catastropharian talking points. While he paid scant attention to the Climategate emails, except to dismiss them, no such restraint is evident in his immediate coverage of a warmist front’s revelation that its enemies raise and distribute funds in the name of encouraging public debate. As Andrew Bolt points out, Cubby has shown no interest in looking at the vast sums supporting the alarmists he endorses. That wouldn’t be quality journalism, which apparently demands reporters present only information which concurs with their preconceptions and personal points of view.

Still, if Cubby were to engage in unauthorised curiosity, he might put a few questions about funding to some people much closer to home than James Cook University's Bob Carter.

He could, for example, ask Adam Morton if he received a per diem for playing straight man to the preposterous David “Mr Mega-Grants” Karoly in this wince-making video?

Or he might ask his employer’s chief financial officer if Morton’s colleague, Melissa Fyfe, drew her standard salary plus expenses while jogging for several weeks down the length of Australia’s east coast to “raise awareness” of climate change.

And while he has the big bean-counter on the phone, why not ask about Fairfax Media’s part-ownership of Earth Hour? If Cubby cannot get a comprehensible answer on that one, not to worry.  Boy On A Bike – not, fortunately, a quality journalist – has unearthed all the details.

If Cubby finds the answers embarrassing, no problem. He can deep six them, along with all those un-put questions about Climategate and its local players.

That’s quality journalism, folks, just in case you hadn’t noticed.

UPDATE: The Heartland Institute says the documents the ardent Cubby has re-broadcast are of dubious provenance. "One document, titled “Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy,” is a total fake apparently intended to defame and discredit The Heartland Institute. It was not written by anyone associated with The Heartland Institute. It does not express Heartland’s goals, plans, or tactics. It contains several obvious and gross misstatements of fact."

Expect Cubby and his Fairfax climate crew to go the full mea culpa in tomorrow's paper. All he need do is admit to being gulled once again -- an announcement few readers would have trouble accepting.

UPDATE II: The Silly has just updated its story to make mention of theHeartland Institute's objections, linking to the relevant press realease. At the foot of its story, however, it persist in providing a direct link to the disputed documents.

Funny, that. Can anyone recall Fairfax providing a hot link to Climategate I and II?

Yawn Of The Dead

IN TERMS of politics, this baby of a year promises to provide the best entertainment since 1975, when readers of a certain age will recall another genius prime minister’s terminal stagger through his government’s litany of shame and scandal. Craig Thomson’s brothel-creeping, Peter Slipper’s nocturnal missions, the curious lassitude of Fair Work Australia’s investigators and, not to be overlooked, prime ministerial staffers prompting race riots – 2012 has got the lot, even before the carbon tax comes into effect and unemployment vaults, as it surely will.

One might imagine that such a chocolate box of delights would have professional journalists salivating at the thought of all the scoops and front-page sensations out there to be had. Straining at the leash, they must be, howling to get on the trail of corruption in high places and defend the public’s right to know. That’s what journalists do, right?

Some journalists perhaps, but apparently not climate change worrywort and Phage environment editor Adam Morton, who has shared with the world via Twitter just how he views the political landscape, and that is with a big, disiniterested yawn:

@adamlmortonAdam Morton

It's not even Feb and Aus politics has jumped a full shiver of sharks.

For those not down with the youth, jumping the shark means something just isn’t worth watching and following anymore, like the final episodes of Happy Days.If Gina Rinehart comes to exert an influence on Fairfax she might wish to make note of Morton’s galloping boredom and do something about it. Cleaning out his desk might keep his mind occupied for a few minutes.

A Lot Of Tosh

IN THE current issue of The Spectator, not available online, columnist Neil Brown QC addresses the recent lecture by Fairfax’s Fifty Grand Vizier Greg Hywood, whose curious assertion it is that his newspapers’ declining sales are of no consequence whatsoever. While some might see Hywood’s remarks as confirming that Fairfax has entered the final of Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’ five stages of dying (acceptance: “I don’t want to struggle anymore”), Brown prefers to focus on the folly of surrendering news coverage to angry, aggrieved adolescents, many of whom are well into middle age. As any parent knows, it is folly to argue with a teenager. They change the subject, ignore logic and evidence, are never at fault, always know so much more than their unenlightened elders and, most annoying of all, cannot conduct a conversation without recourse to ad hom assaults. In a domestic setting the solution is straightforward: tell the little snot to pack his bags and get out, an approach that worked wonders when Young Master Bunyip was going through those difficult years.  In Melbourne, the populace has delivered much the same message to The Phage, which is no longer welcome in the homes of citizens who prefer not to be hectored and have their trust abused. Unfortunately, that has not entirely removed the aggravation, as the paper continues to linger on the front porch, screaming and whining and demanding to be re-admitted in order that the lecturing and sermonizing (and the financial support) might continue as before.

There is prime example of that racket in this morning’s edition of the Phage, which features a report by environmental editor Adam Morton on the great savings to be achieved by going ultra-green. His example is a $100 million “eco-village” to be built at Cape Paterson, which he reports has been given a wondrous endorsement by the author of a study “backed by a state government agency.” If Morton was just a little older, a bit more of a big boy and better able to embrace fact above sentiment, he would have noted that Victoria’s environmental bureaucracy was packed and stacked by the former Labor government and that many of its public utterances and private leaks should be taken as the voice of the now-Opposition.  While the absence of that background information is an unfortunate omission, it is small organic potatoes when judged against another, rather more important item of information missing from Morton’s handiwork.

The chap he quotes, the author of that government-backed study, is a gent called Anthony “Tosh” Szatow, whom a reader unaware of how The Phage these days prefers to report matters close to its green heart might assume to be an independent analyst. Szatow’s message, as transcribed by Morton, is certainly compelling:

The 220-house Cape Paterson proposal aims to be operationally carbon neutral. It promises a minimum 7.5-star rating, solar photovoltaic systems big enough to cover energy needs, high-efficiency lighting, heating and cooling, solar hot water, rainwater tanks and a fleet of electric vehicles.
According to a review by energy consultant Anthony Szatow, funded by government agency Sustainability Victoria, the carbon-neutral approach could save an owner more than seven years and $120,000 in mortgage payments compared with a new six-star house.
Savings on energy and water bills were expected to top $200,000 over 25 years.

So who is Tosh Szatow? Let the eco-village’s developers explain (emphasis added at the Billabong):

Anthony Szatow, known to most as Tosh, will be joining the Cape Paterson team on a full time basis from July 2011. For the last two years he has led the national intelligent grid project at CSIRO. The project aimed to understand the value proposition for local energy solutions Australia wide, and how that value could be most efficiently realised. His research has increasingly focussed on the role of business model innovation in reducing emissions and transforming the energy market. Originally attracted to the Cape Paterson project by the holistic approach to sustainability, he aims to help demonstrate the power of business model innovation as part of the development, with a view to making clean energy more affordable than the alternative. He hopes the project can set a new benchmark for best practice residential housing development and catalyse innovation across the property sector.

Worth noting, although The Age does not, is that the same project almost perished last year, when an independent study recommended against its approval on -- wait for it -- environmental grounds! That suggestion was ignored by Planning Minister Matthew Guy, who must have a blinding constellation of seven-star ratings floating before his wide, green eyes. One day, like Young Master Bunyip, Big Ted’s government may grow up and realise that it was elected to dispute and dismantle Labor wasteful enthusiasms, not endorse them in order to curry favour with a dying newspaper.

Especially a newspaper that presents as an independent voice a green careerist who crunches improbable numbers to assert that his full-time employer’s controversial project is – Surprise! Surprise! – a huge money-saver for the prospective home owners on whom its financial success depends. What’s next, the unquestioned echoing of Chris Scott’s appraisal that the Cats’ hold a mortage on the 2012 premiership? Without, of course, any mention that Scott is Geelong’s senior coach.

Given that he is trousering $50,000 a week to helm Fairfax, you might think Greg Hywood would feel obliged to do some house cleaning. Then again, with so much muck in the stable, perhaps no amount of cash can cover such heavy lifting. 

Best to brand such Mortonesque brochuresmanship as more of that “quality journalism” -- and then Hywood can go straight back to the pleasant business of gloating over his latest bank statement.

More Quality Journalism

THERE are many reasons why The Phage is on the ropes, but few examples of biased ineptitude match the reporting of environment editor Adam Morton, whose warmist sympathies long ago banished from his stories any pretence of objective reporting.

The are many examples of Morton’s partisanship, but the most genuinely remarkable may be one of his shortest and the most recent, which purports to inform readers of a citizen’s attempts under FOI legislation to obtain information on the Gillard Gouge.

Morton’s story is reproduced below in italics. After each of those paragraphs there is a Bunyip’s notion of how the facts might have been presented by a journalist in control of his advocacy.

Notice in particular two things:

(1)    How Morton begins his report by noting that the IPA is “right wing”, thus telegraphing the contempt in which Phage readers should hold Tim Wilson, who has been filing those FOI requests.
(2)    Far more unsettling is Morton’s refusal to ask why such simple requests require so much time and departmental manpower. One gathers that, in Morton’s view, the public’s right to know is contingent on the convenience of bureaucrats and the need to preserve a government he just happens to support.

MORTON'S VERSION: RIGHT-WING think tank the Institute of Public Affairs has received a warning from the Department of Climate Change after it submitted more than 750 freedom-of-information requests in four months.
STRAIGHT VERSION: The Department of Climate Change has threatened to ignore further correspondence from a think tank that has submitted 750 freedom-of-information requests for documents relating to the Gillard Government’s carbon tax. 

The institute, which strongly opposes carbon pricing, has made more than 95 per cent of FOI requests lodged with the department since April.
The Institute of Public Affairs has been a leader of the anti-tax movement which polls show now enjoys the support of a majority of Australian voters. The IPA has made more than 95 per cent of FOI requests lodged with the department since April.

The department last week wrote to the institute's director of climate change policy, Tim Wilson, and asked that he stop submitting requests so it could deal with the backlog.
While public servants are obliged by law to respond in a timely fashion to FOI requests, the department last week wrote to the institute's director of climate change policy, Tim Wilson, and asked that he stop submitting requests so it could deal with the backlog.

If the volume of applications continued the department would consider whether dealing with Mr Wilson's requests was an unreasonable diversion of resources - a step that could lead to him being considered a vexatious applicant. 
The department further threatened to declare Mr Wilson “a vexatious applicant” if he persists in requesting documents. Mr Wilson could appeal such a decision – a move that would draw further attention to the spin and secrecy critics charge has characterised the Gillard government’s plans to promote and implement the tax.
In fighting such an appeal, the department would be likely to claim that dealing with Mr Wilson's requests was an unreasonable diversion of resources. This is a tactic familiar to Canberra observers and reporters, whose requests are often stalled by departmental excuses of inadequate manpower. 

It is believed Mr Wilson submitted about 440 information requests on one day in late July and more than 140 on one day last week. A government source said it took about 39 hours of staff time to process each application.
It is believed Mr Wilson submitted about 440 information requests on one day in late July and more than 140 on one day last week.While government sources are saying it takes about 39 hours of staff time to answer each request, they also are declining to explain why so much time and effort is required.

"He is conducting a political campaign against the government's policy on climate change and this is coming at significant cost to taxpayers,'' the source said.
The government source insisted Wilson’s requests were unworthy of prompt response because “he is conducting a political campaign against the government’s policy.” However, FOI laws make no distinction about an applicant’s motives, assuming that all citizens have an equal right to access information, regardless of whether or not it might reflect badly on the government of the moment.

Mr Wilson said he had agreed to stop lodging applications while his requests were processed.
Mr Wilson has agreed to withhold further requests until the backlog is cleared. He said he could see no reason why the department found the FOI process so time-consuming, adding that it struck him as further evidence of a government determined to enact the tax in the face of the PM’s pre-election promise not to do so.

After all that, Morton finally let's Wilson have his say, so the following paragraphs need need no tinkering.


He said he was chasing information on a policy that was probably the ''most significant negative transformation of the Australian economy in its history''.

''I have put in a lot of requests and I don't dispute that. People need to know the truth about the carbon tax,'' he said. ''I'm sorry the government doesn't like scrutiny, but it needs to be honest with the Australian people.''

While Morton and The Phage are lost in their green fog, The Australian gets it.

The Age Lets Truth Slip Out

SEE a story in the Fairfax press about the coming Low Carbon Economy and experience warns to brace yourself. Here it comes, you think, another exercise in opacity by some kid crusader who will be burying the grim news in a compote of clichés, determined dissembling and incoherent writing. That has certainly been Adam Morton’s schtick in the Phage, which on Saturday allowed its environmental editor to heave a weary sigh and help his newspaper’s remaining readers see through the “smoke and mirrors” of the ecosphere’s enemies. The result in that instance was a streak of incontinent advocacy that dribbled down the page and pooled in a pair of final paragraphs astonishing for their evasions:

…each Chinese is responsible for about one-fifth of the emissions of each Australian. Australia continues to have the highest per capita emissions of any major developed nation.

For a fellow who, earlier in his column, sniggered at sceptics for not comparing “apples with apples”, such immediate recourse to the per-capita sleight of hand might strike some as rather brazen. Are a billion closely packed and mostly poor Chinese the best yardstick for judging 21 million thinly smeared and rather wealthy Australians? Morton seems to think so, or at least hopes he can persuade you to do so.

Despite this, China is acting. This week it again signalled it would pilot an emissions trading scheme, expected to expand nationally in 2015. And estimates suggest it is on track to meet its UN target of a 40-45 per cent cut in emissions intensity by 2020. At some point soon after that it is going to have to do much more, but government bureaucrats have said its 2020 target equates to Australia cutting emissions by 25 per cent by 2020, far more than either major party supports.

Catch the trick? Spot the artifice? China is “on track” to a “40-45 per cent cut”, but not in actual emissions, just “emissions intensity”. Morton neglects to explain what this might be, so take it from a Bunyip: China will be burning lots and lots more coal, much of it dug up in Australia, but its next generation of ravenous power plants will make the combustion process far more efficient. In other words, more of the wicked gas that keeps Morton tossing and turning of a night between his organic cotton sheets. That’s emissions intensity, folks, and it has no closer relationship with reducing CO2 than the Phage does with clear and honest English.

All of which means there could be angry words if Morton encounters colleague David Potts over a cup of fair trade coffee in the Phage cafeteria. For perhaps the first time in the newspaper’s coverage of the Gillard Gouge, a Fairfax journalist goes with facts and hard numbers. The whole piece is worth reading, but these quotes are its nuggets:

* It's a permit to pollute - just like getting a licence to drive - for a fee. Who calls that a tax?

* It's a funny tax where a government hands back more than it raises

* Gas and electricity utilities ''may have to bear some additional costs in the near term but longer term there should, ultimately, be full pass through [to consumers]''

* The Housing Industry Association estimates a carbon price will add an average $5500 to the cost of a house.

* [Food] prices will rise but, hey, what was that diet you were thinking about?

* Winners would have to be companies that can sell carbon credits and all this puts a new perspective on those dodgy, I mean tax-dodging, June 30 tree-plantation schemes.

* [for investors] green chip stocks  … need to be well run [companies] with strong balance sheets, a proven technology and not continually calling for more capital … Unfortunately, most green chips fall foul on at least one of these.

* the biggest problem is that the carbon price needs to [almost triple to] $60 a tonne before it is profitable for electricity generators to switch from coal to gas and renewable energy.

* The carbon price will rise by the inflation rate plus 2.5 per cent a year … Treasury's guess is $131 a tonne in today's prices.

* over time "it might slow the rate of increase" is the most the prime minister is promising.

* China and India buy most of our coal, so any pollution created is for them to fix.

* as some products and services become dearer the budget-conscious among us will switch to something cheaper.

Apart from ruining his chances of landing a job at the ABC as Fairfax goes under, Potts can expect much grief when he applies for one of those Fit & Proper Person permits which Christine Milne is so keen to introduce.

Morton’s application should sail straight through.

Karolus Interrupt Us

YOU knew Adam Morton, one of the Phage’s many warmists, would not let slip an opportunity to breathe further CO2 into the over-inflated flap about Viscount Monckton’s comparison of green jackbooters with Nazis. And he doesn’t:

The attack on Professor Garnaut was not the first time Lord Monckton accused those he disagrees with of being Nazis.
In December 2009 he accused students who stormed the stage as he delivered a speech in Copenhagen of being ''Hitler Youth''.

Andrew Bolt has the video of the Copenhagen blitzkreig, which speaks for itself.

Because Morton is such a fair, even-handed, non-partisan chronicler of the climate debate, perhaps we can next expect a reference to another invasion of another stage by an another representative of arrogant, wild-eyed fanatics. That would be Morto’s mate and head of Earth Sciences at the Parkville Asylum, David Karoly.

When Karoly needs a Dorothy Dix questioner, it is to Morton he turns. Indeed, a viewing of the two videos he shot with Karoly supports the belief that Morton is one of the most dependable dix in the country. Global warming will both drown and incinerate us, Karoly explains, asserting a threat so dire it will oblige the transition to a zero-carbon economy within just 40 years. None of this strikes Morton as insane, un-doable or economically disastrous, let alone unnecessary. Nor does he raise an eyebrow when Karoly asserts that higher temperatures cause droughts, rather than vice versa (as hydrologist Stewart Franks has tried to make him understand).

But surely Morton could take a little break from playing Boswell to his favourite johnson and pen just a word or two about an academic who believes himself entitled to invade and disrupt a colleague’s lecture. Listen to the audio below, recorded by a student as Karoly transformed a law lecture into Bad Manners 101.

Did you catch an unknown student describing Karoly is an “arsehole”? It’s a good thing the kid is studying law. With such a talent for concision and accuracy he would never make it as a journalist – not at the Phage, anyway. 

The Occidental Tourist

CONGRATULATIONS to Phage environment reporter Adam Morton, who will be enlarging his carbon footprint very shortly by jetting off to Europe as the latest recipient of the EU-Qantas Journalist Award. Adam plans to gather all the facts on carbon trading, and to do so as only a fair, impartial and non-aligned journalist can – you know, the sort without a barrow to push

"The claim is frequently made that Australia is 'going it alone' in pricing carbon," Adam said upon being notified of his triumph.  "This suggests the EU emissions trading scheme remains poorly understood both at the political level and by the broader public."

When Adam returns we can expect lots more quality journalism detailing rapidly evolving scams, rorted taxes and organised carbon crime. The authors of this Europol report, for example, might make for an interesting interview, particularly the individual who penned this scenario:

The agreement reached at the 2009 Copenhagen summit on climate change (COP15) is viewed as a bargain based on shifting national priorities. As a result, there is little will at central government level to exceed the minimum expectations set. Measures to reduce emissions are driven by the prospect of profit rather than by climate change concerns: “cap and trade” gains strength because of an already established trade in carbon credits and a market for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS); in the absence of requisite regulation, this is accompanied by an increase in Emissions Trade Fraud (ETF).

There are many pleasant spots in Europe, where the Professor has spent quite a bit of time. Indeed, it was only the other day that the sight of a mobile revenue camera near Sale prompted thoughts of taking off to Austria, attending the opera, eating a cream cake, renting a Mercedes and, just for the fun of it, flying like crap from a catapult along the largely unregulated AutoBahns.

When the time comes to make those bookings, the travel agent will be advised that Bunyip bottoms no longer sit comfortably on Qantas seats. Readers planning similar trips might consider doing likewise. 

Stay Tuned

APOLOGIES, seriously, for going on about Fairfax lately, but the company’s antics really do make it difficult to turn away. This morning on 3AW, which is owned by Fairfax, compere Neil Mitchell mentioned in passing that a carbon tax may boost domestic electricity prices by 30%. This ticked off Green Establishment spokesman and alarmist for all seasons Adam Morton, who moonlights as the Phage’s environmental reporter. Morton next launched into a series of mildly indignant tweets, one of which Mitchell answered thus:

adamlmorton Adam Morton

@3AWNeilMitchell Where does the 30% increase in electricity bills over 3 years under a carbon tax figure come from?

14 hours ago

in reply to @adamlmorton ↑

@3AWNeilMitchell Neil Mitchell

@

@adamlmorton industry two weeks ago

Morton has an endangered native bush bee in his bonnet by this stage and posts a few more tweets that sum up two rival online polls, each a Fairfax endeavour. On 3AW’s site listener opinion is running against Cate Blanchett 64-36. At the Phage, a similar poll sees readers taking the actress’ side 80-20. One gathers that Morton believes the latter poll is the more righteous, and he goes on to tweet and retweet links and comments defending Blanchett, attacking the Daily Telegraph as “a meth addicted hillbilly with glazed eyes pointing a shotgun at hallucinations” and even explaining how a green reporter decides what news to report and which to filter.

adamlmorton Adam Morton

@

@WhyPaulHowes If you can show govt paid for ad, i'm interested. Otherwise this "debate" is all just hot air I'm afraid.

All of that is interesting, but also predictable. While Morton is habitually blind to stories that do not serve his green mates’ agenda, gve him credit for labouring publicly and proudly under those misconceptions.

It gets more interesting when  Morton’s colleague Jill Stark weighs in with some observations about Mitchell’s veracity.

@jillastark Jill Stark

@adamlmorton No reply from Mitchell yet either about your query on his power bill stats. Can't believe how unaccountable he is for nonsense.

A few years ago, before Fairfax bought 3AW, Mitchell was given to frequent and sneering dismissals of the Phage as anything but a serious newspaper, one certainly not staffed by grown-ups. That sort of criticism is not much heard these days, but tomorrow it just might be. While it can sometimes seem that Mitchell prefers to niggle and bash his staple Three Cs – Collingwood, Catholics and cartage contractors – he may well be about to expand the repertoire . Mitchell’s ego is so large it could be deemed a hazard to navigation. He will not take kindly to being branded a piffle peddler by a slip of a 20-something gal, especially one who works for the same company. 

Tomorrow should make for wonderful listening if he takes the bait – one arm of Fairfax getting stuck into another.